How Often Do Home Teams Win in Football? 5,617 Matches Checked

1 October 2026·4 min read·By Denver

Home teams won 46.8% of 5,617 matches between March and September 2026. Fans backed the home side in 54.9% of their predictions, and those picks called the result 63.6% of the time.

Home teams win a little under half the time. Of the 5,617 finished matches that players predicted on CalledItMate between 22 March and 30 September 2026, the home side won 2,628 (46.8%). Away teams won 1,782 (31.7%) and 1,207 (21.5%) were draws.

So yes, home teams win more. In this sample a home win was about one and a half times as common as an away win.

The home edge across every match we tracked

The 5,617 matches above are the ones fans chose to predict. The system tracks far more fixtures than that, at every level it follows, and most of them get no predictions at all. Across all 49,503 finished matches it recorded in the same window:

Home wins: 21,275 (43.0%)
Away wins: 15,927 (32.2%)
Draws: 12,301 (24.8%)

The home win share is a bit lower and draws a bit higher than in the predicted matches, but the order is the same. Home teams come out ahead on the wider data too.

Do home teams score more goals?

They do. In the 5,617 predicted matches, home sides scored 9,627 goals (1.71 a game) and away sides 7,688 (1.37 a game). Fans' predictions gave the home side 1.70 goals a game and the away side 1.30, so they had the home number about right and slightly undersold away teams.

How often fans back the home side

The 971 players in the sample made 22,221 score predictions. Here is how those split by result:

Home win: 12,197 predictions (54.9%)
Away win: 7,636 predictions (34.4%)
Draw: 2,388 predictions (10.7%)

Fans back the home side more often than home teams actually win, 54.9% of predictions against 46.8% of matches. Most of that gap comes from draws: they ended about one match in five, yet got only about one prediction in ten. Our draws study digs into that.

Is backing the home team a good call?

Of the 12,197 predictions of a home win, 7,752 called the result right (63.6%). Away win picks were right 4,183 times out of 7,636 (54.8%), and draw picks 528 times out of 2,388 (22.1%).

That does not mean you should back every home team. Fans pick the home side most often when it is the stronger team, so the 63.6% partly reflects which matches they chose to back at home. Another way to see it: in the 3,031 matches where most predictions were a home win, the home team won 1,827 (60.3%). The crowd was right more often than not, and still wrong about two times in five.

Home wins in the Premier League, in this sample

The Premier League part of the sample is 122 matches, so read this as what happened in those games rather than a rule:

Home wins: 51 (41.8%)
Away wins: 36 (29.5%)
Draws: 35 (28.7%)

Fans made 1,339 predictions on those games: 624 home wins (46.6%), 519 away wins (38.8%) and 196 draws (14.6%). They backed away teams more often in the Premier League than across the whole sample, and the home edge in these 122 games was smaller too. If the top flight is your thing, the Premier League prediction game covers how the game works there.

What this means for your predictions

Home advantage is real but modest. A home win is the most common result, and still fails to happen in more than half of matches.
Draws are the blind spot. Fans pick draws about half as often as they happen, which is where most of the over-backing of home sides comes from.
Judge the match, not the venue. The home picks that worked were mostly on stronger home teams. Being at home on its own is a weak reason to back a side.

More on reading a fixture in how to predict football scores.

How we counted

Window: matches that kicked off from 22 March to 30 September 2026 inclusive (UTC), finished, and have a recorded final score. Data read on 1 October 2026.
Excluded: internal test matches, house accounts run by CalledItMate, and duplicate accounts merged into another account.
Matches are the finished matches that received at least one score prediction, each counted once, unless stated as the wider set of every match the system tracked.
A prediction called the result when it and the final score agree on home win, draw or away win.
These figures share a sample with our scorelines study. Our draws study was frozen a few hours earlier, so its totals are a touch lower.
CalledItMate players are a self-selected group of football fans, not a random sample of the public.

Want to put the numbers to work? CalledItMate is a free football prediction game: call the correct score before kick-off, then pick the next goalscorer and the next team to score while the match is live. There is nothing to stake, and the weekly winner takes a real cash prize (how the prizes work). Play free at calleditmate.com.