Research
Football fans predict draws half as often as they happen
By Denver (@Denveloper), founder of CalledItMate · Published October 2026
We analysed 22,095 score predictions made by 972 players on CalledItMate, a free football prediction game, across 5,603 completed matches that kicked off between 22 March and 30 September 2026.
2,380 of 22,095 predictions were a draw (10.8%). 1,201 of 5,603 matches actually ended level (21.4%).
Aggregate data: download the CSV. Free to use with attribution to CalledItMate.
1-1 is the most common score, and the least backed
| Scoreline | Matches that ended this way | Predictions of it |
|---|
| Any draw | 1,201 (21.4%) | 2,380 (10.8%) |
| 1-1 | 539 (9.6%) | 1,277 (5.8%) |
| 1-0 | 506 (9.0%) | 834 (3.8%) |
| 2-1 | 479 (8.5%) | 3,837 (17.4%) |
1-1 was the single most common final score, yet fans predicted 2-1 about three times as often as 1-1, and about twice as often as 2-1 actually happened. Scorelines are home-away, so 1-0 and 2-1 are home wins by that margin.
The twist: the most accurate regular players pick draws least
We took the 78 players with at least 30 predictions and split them into quarters by how often they called the result (home win, draw or away win) correctly. The most accurate quarter picked a draw far less often than the least accurate.
| Quarter | Players | Predictions | Result right | Draw picks | Draws in the matches they predicted |
|---|
| Least accurate | 20 | 3,702 | 1,741 (47.0%) | 660 (17.8%) | 750 (20.3%) |
| Second | 20 | 3,435 | 1,841 (53.6%) | 383 (11.1%) | 725 (21.1%) |
| Third | 19 | 6,386 | 3,694 (57.8%) | 582 (9.1%) | 1,246 (19.5%) |
| Most accurate | 19 | 5,396 | 3,415 (63.3%) | 218 (4.0%) | 950 (17.6%) |
The last column checks whether the most accurate players simply predicted matches that happened to draw less. Their matches did end level slightly less often (17.6% against 20.3%), which accounts for only a small part of the gap in draw picks. A draw is the least likely of the three results, so backing a winner is usually the percentage call, even though draws are under-predicted overall.
Fans expect both teams to score
| Matches | Predictions |
|---|
| Both teams scored | 2,995 (53.5%) | 13,669 (61.9%) |
| Average goals per match | 3.08 | 3.00 |
Fans predicted about the right number of goals, but spread them across both teams more often than happened.
Premier League, in this sample
In this sample, 620 of 1,339 Premier League predictions got the result right (46.3%), against 12,413 of 22,095 across the full dataset (56.2%). 35 of the 122 Premier League matches in the sample were draws (28.7%). With 122 matches this is an observed gap in this sample, not a conclusion about the league.
Who fans back to score
Separate from score predictions, players call who will score the next goal while a match is live. Of 20,550 graded goalscorer picks, 3,055 landed (14.9%).
| Position of the player picked | Picks | Landed |
|---|
| Forwards | 14,831 | 2,644 (17.8%) |
| Midfielders | 5,252 | 401 (7.6%) |
| Defenders | 412 | 10 (2.4%) |
| Goalkeepers | 48 | 0 (0.0%) |
| Not in lineup data | 7 | 0 (0.0%) |
This describes how fans pick goalscorers. It is not a measure of any player's scoring ability, and the defender figure rests on only 10 successful picks.
Methodology
- Window: matches that kicked off from 22 March 2026 to 30 September 2026 inclusive (UTC), finished, and have a recorded final score. Data read on 1 October 2026 and frozen.
- Score prediction: a player's predicted final score for a match. Each player has at most one per match. It can be changed until kick-off; the version held at kick-off is the one counted.
- Result right: the prediction and the final score agree on home win, draw or away win. Exact score: both numbers match (1,959 of 22,095, 8.9%).
- Match percentages count each match once. Prediction percentages count each prediction once, so a match with many predictions weighs more in them.
- Excluded: house accounts run by CalledItMate, internal test matches, and duplicate accounts that were merged into another account.
- Quarters: the 78 players with at least 30 score predictions in the window, ranked by their share of results called correctly and split into four near-equal groups. Percentages within a quarter are across its predictions.
- Goalscorer picks: a call on who scores the next goal during a live match, graded against the scorer of that goal. Picks the game voided because they were placed too close to the goal they were graded on, inside its confirmation window, are excluded. Position comes from the match lineup data.
- Limitations: CalledItMate players are a self-selected group of football fans, not a random sample of the public, and the competition mix follows what they chose to predict.