How Often Does the Team That Scores First Win in Football?

1 October 2026·4 min read·By Denver

The team that scored first won 70.7% of 4,963 matches between March and September 2026 and avoided defeat in 87.4%. A first goal from the 76th minute on won 89.1% of the time.

The team that scores first wins about seven times in ten. In 4,963 matches with at least one goal that players predicted on CalledItMate between 22 March and 30 September 2026, the side that opened the scoring won 3,508 (70.7%), drew 828 (16.7%) and lost 627 (12.6%).

Put another way, the team that scored first avoided defeat in 4,336 matches (87.4%). Here is how that changes by venue and timing, and how fans called the first goal.

When the first goal is the only goal

Part of that win rate comes from games where the first goal was the only goal. 865 of the matches (17.4%) finished 1-0 or 0-1. Leave those out and the team that scored first still won 2,643 of the remaining 4,098 (64.5%).

Home and away: who scores first, and does it hold?

The home side scored first in 2,803 matches (56.5%) and the away side in 2,160 (43.5%).

Scoring first was worth more at home:

Home team scored first: won 2,124 of 2,803 (75.8%), drew 400 (14.3%), lost 279 (10.0%)
Away team scored first: won 1,384 of 2,160 (64.1%), drew 428 (19.8%), lost 348 (16.1%)

An away team that went ahead was pegged back or beaten about one time in three. A home team that went ahead, about one time in four. That fits the home edge in how often home teams win.

Does it matter when the first goal comes?

Yes, mostly late on. Here is the win rate for the team that scored first, by the minute of the opening goal:

Minutes 1 to 15: won 1,172 of 1,684 (69.6%)
Minutes 16 to 30: won 799 of 1,191 (67.1%)
Minutes 31 to 45 (with first-half stoppage time): won 599 of 870 (68.9%)
Minutes 46 to 60: won 378 of 537 (70.4%)
Minutes 61 to 75: won 254 of 325 (78.2%)
Minute 76 onwards: won 244 of 274 (89.1%)

Through the first hour the win rate stays close to seven in ten. After that it climbs, because the other side has less time to reply. An opening goal from the 76th minute on was a winner nearly nine times in ten. A further 82 first goals had no recorded minute and are left out of this breakdown only.

Openers came early more often than late. 3,745 of the 4,881 first goals with a minute (76.7%) arrived before half-time.

Who scores the next goal after the first?

In the 4,098 matches with two or more goals, the team that scored first also got the second goal in 2,241 (54.7%). The other side scored next in 1,857 (45.3%).

So if you call the next team to score while a match is live, the side that just went ahead is only a little better than an even bet.

How fans called the first goal

On CalledItMate, players pick the next team to score while a match is live, starting with the first goal. In the matches above, 569 players made 17,410 picks on which team would score first, across 4,244 matches. 11,086 of those picks were right (63.7%).

Fans leaned towards the home side. 10,525 picks (60.5%) backed the home team to score first, a little more than the 56.5% of matches where the home team actually did. For who tends to get that first goal, see who scores more goals: forwards or midfielders.

The Premier League, in this sample

The Premier League part of the sample is small: 113 matches with at least one goal. The team that scored first won 76 (67.3%), drew 27 (23.9%) and lost 10 (8.8%). Roughly in line with the overall figure.

What this means if you predict scores

The first goal is the biggest swing in most matches, which is one reason a correct score call before kick-off is so hard: get the team that scores first wrong and the likely final scores change. For the pre-match side, read how to predict football scores. For the live side, the numbers above say an early lead is far from settled, while a late one usually is.

How we counted

Window: matches that kicked off from 22 March to 30 September 2026 inclusive (UTC), finished, and have a recorded final score. Data read on 1 October 2026.
Excluded: internal test matches, house accounts run by CalledItMate, and duplicate accounts merged into another account.
Matches are the finished matches that received at least one score prediction. Of those 5,617, 5,276 had at least one goal, and the 4,963 whose goal-by-goal record adds up exactly to the final score for each team are used here. Goals overturned by VAR are not counted. The 341 matches that ended 0-0 have no first goal.
Results use the recorded final score, so penalty shootouts are not counted. Minute 76 onwards includes second-half stoppage time and any extra time.
Picks are next team to score picks on each match's first goal, excluding voided picks.
CalledItMate players are a self-selected group of football fans, and the competition mix follows what they chose to predict.

Want to put the numbers to work? CalledItMate is a free football prediction game: call the correct score before kick-off, then pick the next goalscorer and the next team to score while the match is live. There is nothing to stake, and the weekly winner takes a real cash prize (how the prizes work). Play free at calleditmate.com.