Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Prediction & Preview
Eight days. That is all that separates the last meeting between Azerbaijan and Lithuania from this one, after the two drew 1-1 in the UEFA Nations League on 27 September 2026. They are straight back into it on Sunday, and this time there is no excuse for either side not knowing exactly what they are facing.
- Fixture: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
- Competition: UEFA Nations League
- Date: Sunday, 4 October 2026
- Kick-off: 14:00 BST
- Match page: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
A draw that settled nothing
The reverse fixture ended 1-1, and neither side has played since without that result hanging over them. Azerbaijan have since drawn again, 0-0 against Liechtenstein on 1 October, while Lithuania beat Andorra 3-0 in a friendly three days earlier. Both go into Sunday unbeaten in their last two, but one of those unbeaten runs has a lot more goals in it than the other.
Azerbaijan have gone cold in front of goal
Azerbaijan have scored once in their last two competitive outings: the single goal in the 1-1 draw with Lithuania, followed by a blank against Liechtenstein. Before that they edged Tajikistan 1-0 in a friendly on 23 September. Three matches, two goals. The heavy wins over Saint Lucia and Sierra Leone back in March belong to a different competition against different opposition, and they tell you nothing about how this side scores against a team of Lithuania's level.
Lithuania arrive scoring more freely
Lithuania have found the net in four of their last five internationals. They put three past Andorra, got their goal in the draw with Azerbaijan, and won 2-0 away at Liechtenstein before that. Their one blank came back in March, a 2-0 defeat away to Georgia. Of the two sides meeting on Sunday, Lithuania are the ones who have looked more likely to score when they take the field.
What the build-up has produced
Azerbaijan head coach Aykhan Abbasov has described Sunday's opponents as combative and well-prepared, and said Lithuania have an edge in physical readiness going into the game. Striker Renat Dadashov, who missed the Liechtenstein match through injury, remains out and will not be involved. Lithuania are led by head coach Edgaras Jankauskas, with Fedor Černych as captain; no fresh injury concerns have been reported on their side this week.
The group picture
Run the three completed games in this Nations League group together and the table is plain: Lithuania lead on four points from their win over Liechtenstein and draw with Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan sit on two points from draws with both Lithuania and Liechtenstein, and Liechtenstein are bottom on one. Sunday's winner would open a gap at the top with games still to come.
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction
Lithuania should edge this UEFA Nations League meeting with Azerbaijan on current form. They have scored more often than their opponents across the last month, already lead the group, and know from the first meeting that Azerbaijan are there to be broken down rather than avoided. Azerbaijan's problem is simple: two goals in three games is not enough to be confident of winning a repeat fixture, even at home advantage of the calendar rather than the pitch.
Our prediction: Azerbaijan 1-2 Lithuania
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