SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV Prediction & Preview - Bundesliga
Hamburger SV have won four of their last six. SC Paderborn 07 have won two of theirs and lost three, and that is the gap this Bundesliga fixture hangs on. The two meet at the Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn on Saturday, 24 October 2026, kick-off 14:30 BST.
- Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV
- Competition: Bundesliga
- Date: Saturday, 24 October 2026
- Kick-off: 14:30 BST
- Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn, Germany
- Match page: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV predictions
Hamburger SV have won four of their last six
Hamburger SV arrive in Paderborn having won four of their last six matches for 12 points, the most recent a 1-0 home win over VfB Stuttgart 7 days before this Bundesliga fixture.
Before Stuttgart came a 3-2 win away at TSG Hoffenheim, 14 days before this match, and a 2-0 home win over FC København in a friendly 20 days before it. Further back, a 2-1 home win against 1. FC Köln 35 days out.
The other two games in that run are harder to square with any of it. Hamburg lost 0-5 away to RB Leipzig and 0-5 at home to 1. FSV Mainz 05, and they have conceded 13 goals across the six. Four of the six had three or more goals in them. Two were clean sheets. This is a side playing at two completely different levels depending on the week, and the away sample is small: one win in two on the road.
SC Paderborn 07 have seven points from six
SC Paderborn 07 go into their Bundesliga meeting with Hamburger SV on 7 points from their last six matches - two wins, one draw, three defeats - after drawing 2-2 away to SV Werder Bremen 7 days before kick-off.
That point at Bremen was earned. Most of the rest has not been. VfB Stuttgart came to Paderborn 14 days before this match and won 2-0, and Paderborn have won only one of three at home in this run. They failed to score in three of the six.
The high point is a 3-1 home win over TSG Hoffenheim, 34 days before this fixture. Everything before that was worse: 0-3 away at Borussia Dortmund 42 days out, and a 0-1 home defeat by SC Freiburg 49 days out. The only match after the Hoffenheim win and before the Stuttgart defeat was a 1-0 win away at DC United in a friendly, 24 days before this one.
Where SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV is decided
Team news
Ralf Kettemann is without centre-back Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant, who has rejoined partial training after a knee injury but is not available, and midfielder Sebastian Klaas is out with a hamstring problem; Timur Gayret has been training on grass as he works back from an ACL injury, and Marcel Hoffmeier is over a thigh issue but was not expected to start (Sports Mole). Merlin Polzin has the bigger problem: captain Nicolai Remberg tore his ACL and is expected to miss the rest of the season, with the club not planning a free-agent signing and Nicolás Capaldo likely to move from defence into midfield (Bulinews). Hamburg had up to seven players at risk ahead of the Stuttgart game, among them Albert Sambi Lokonga and forward Patson Daka (Sports Mole).
The common opponents are the useful part. Stuttgart won 2-0 at Paderborn 14 days before this match; Hamburg beat the same side 1-0 at home 7 days before it. Paderborn beat Hoffenheim 3-1 at home 34 days out, Hamburg won 3-2 at Hoffenheim 14 days out.
Neither run is a shootout, though. Both sides have scored in only two of Paderborn's six and two of Hamburg's six. Each has conceded two or more in three of six. The likelier shape is a tight game that one goal decides, not an open one.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV prediction
Our prediction is a 2-1 away win for Hamburger SV at SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga on Saturday, 24 October 2026. Hamburg have won four of their last six to Paderborn's two, and they have scored eight goals in that run against Paderborn's six.
Paderborn's home record is what tips it. One win in three at the Home Deluxe Arena, and no goals at all in three of their last six. Hamburg can be dismantled on their bad days, but they have beaten a Stuttgart side that won at Paderborn, and they won away at Hoffenheim where Paderborn only managed it at home.
Our prediction: SC Paderborn 07 1-2 Hamburger SV
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