Finland vs Belarus Prediction & Preview - UEFA Nations League
Finland's 7-0 demolition of San Marino on 26 September 2026 tells only part of the story ahead of their UEFA Nations League meeting with Belarus, who lost 2-0 to Albania the same night.
- Fixture: Finland v Belarus
- Competition: UEFA Nations League
- Date: Tuesday, 29 September 2026
- Kick-off: 17:00 BST
- Match page: Finland vs Belarus
Finland's form is more mixed than that scoreline suggests
Seven goals past San Marino is a real result, but it followed a run in which Finland lost 4-0 to Germany on 31 May 2026 and 2-1 to Hungary on 5 June 2026. Against a weaker opponent they scored freely; against two of Europe's stronger sides in the space of five days, they didn't score at all in one game and managed only one in the other. That gap between the two levels of opponent is the thing worth watching here, more than the scoreline itself.
Joel Pohjanpalo scored a hat-trick in that San Marino win, and it's carried him straight back into the starting eleven for this one.
Belarus lost their last match, but their scoring record isn't bad
The 2-0 defeat to Albania on 26 September 2026 is Belarus's most recent result, but it sits alongside three other outings this year that all point a different way. They beat Cyprus 1-0 on 26 March 2026, drew 2-2 with Burkina Faso on 9 June 2026, and beat Syria 4-1 on 5 June 2026. Belarus have found the net in three of their last four matches before the Albania game - the Albania result looks more like an off night than a form line.
Team news for both sides
Finland go into the match without midfielders Naatan Skytta and Niklas Pyyhtia, the latter nursing a hand injury, while Leo Walta, Adam Markhiev and Kaan Kairinen are expected to start. Pohjanpalo keeps his place up front, with Adrian Svanback and Benjamin Kallman supporting him. Belarus have no reported injury or suspension concerns, with Zakhar Volkov and Ivan Tsikhamirau expected to shield goalkeeper Fedor Lapoukhove, Max Ebong and Aleksandr Selyava forming a double pivot behind Valeriy Gromyko, and German Barkovskiy leading the line.
Finland vs Belarus prediction
Finland should beat Belarus in this UEFA Nations League fixture on 29 September 2026, built on the goals Pohjanpalo is scoring rather than the fact Belarus lost their last game. Belarus have shown in three of their last four outings that they can score against sides outside the very top bracket, so a clean sheet for Finland looks less likely than a win. Finland's problem has been games against stronger opposition, and Belarus don't fit that description on this run of results.
Our prediction: Finland 2-1 Belarus
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